Wednesday, November 27, 2013

The Modern Prophets of Baal

Modern economics is all about modeling and mapping the interactions of millions of people.  No, that’s not quite accurate.  It is about using models and maps to predict the future.

Kind of like astrology with less spirits (but not none).

Most of the top economics advisors adhere to the Keynesian or neo-Keynesian viewpoint.  This viewpoint strives to map and model human behavior without actually understanding human behavior.  Failing to understand human behavior is a problem because economics is a subset of praxeology, the study of human behavior, which in this case applies to studying property exchanges.

The fact is, most government approved economists are like the prophets of Baal in the court of King Ahab.  They predict only favorable things and dismiss people who predict bad outcomes.  What is worse is that much of the modern economic policies are based on these lies.

Any government does not like it when bad news in provided to the people as said news is a strike against said government.  This has been the case in all of history as most kings and other assorted leaders were often to have been assumed to have been given a divine right to rule.  A natural disaster or failing economy is often a sign of the displeasure of the gods.

Likewise today, we find ourselves blaming the government for every economic failure that occurs.  This is patently unfair, as while the government does interfere with the markets, it is not entirely responsible for every bad thing that happens.  Usually, as seen with the Great Depression (both past and present), they only extend the misery that was inflicted upon them.

Economists are often looked at as experts but when their predictions fail, nobody really seems to notice.  Like the prophets of old who Elijah mocked as they danced and cut themselves, it takes a big event to prove them wrong and get them condemned.

The various calculations of the economists are misleading at best.  The Consumer Price Index, for example, is an inaccurate calculation for price inflation in that its samples exclude food, fuel, and housing.  The unemployment index is misleading in that it excludes people who do volunteer work from being considered unemployed.  You would think that this calculation would be simple as it could easily be based on IRS data in comparison to the actual population as provided by the census.  And then there is the calculations of the money supply.

In all three, though, we find questions that no one seems to ask.  For example, why does price inflation matter?  In reality, we should be looking at real inflation, that is, the increase in the supply of money.  As to unemployment, that shouldn’t matter either as a family could only have one person working while the other adult stays home and raises the kids.  Also, what if a person has saved up enough money to forgo working for a time?  As for the money supply, it is very difficult to pin down an accurate definition of what money is these days, given the dozens of ways people can pay for things.

Ultimately, most government economists and those who are supported by Statists are nothing more than con-men who have little understanding of what real interactions between individuals are.  Their models and maps are a show and only the truly clueless actually believe in them.  The rest are merely just getting a paycheck.